Executive Summary
Mizuho Financial Group is intensifying efforts to expand its investment banking operations in India, with a focus on servicing corporate and institutional clients rather than commercial or retail segments. Key to this strategy is acquiring a majority stake in Avendus Capital—valued between US$700–800 million—which would provide Mizuho a local platform to accelerate deal-making and cross-border advisory services. Disagreements over valuation and exit rights with KKR have delayed the deal, underscoring both opportunity and execution risk for Mizuho’s ambitions to become Asia’s top investment bank within five years. [2][3][5][4][9][8]
Analysis
Mizuho’s push into India forms part of a broader strategic plan to become one of Asia’s leading investment banks. During a November 2025 interview, deputy president Suneel Bakhshi emphasized India as a “growth opportunity in the medium term,” and reaffirmed that its approach will “mirror what we want to do globally,” namely focusing on the wholesale side of investment banking rather than commercial operations. [1][8] A core element of this plan is the proposed acquisition of Avendus Capital, currently majority owned by KKR. At its most recent valuation, Avendus is priced between US$700 million and US$800 million, including debt, and offers a potential 63–70% stake transfer. [3][4][1] However, negotiations have stalled due to disagreements over valuation and the mechanics of KKR’s exit, indicating significant structural and governance risks. [2][3][6]
Complementing its India ambitions, Mizuho is building investment banking strength across other regions. The 2023 acquisition of Greenhill & Co boosted its U.S. deal-advisory capabilities, and recent hires (such as the appointment of Thomas Hartnett to lead fixed income across multiple regions) suggest it is scaling up not just geographically but by business line. [1][5][8] Mizuho also plans to replicate its U.S. success in Asia and Europe through deeper coordination between banking and securities arms, targeting a top-10 ranking globally over the next few years. [5][12][8]
Strategic implications include:
- Local platform leverage: Acquiring Avendus could provide Mizuho with immediate scale in investment banking, wealth management, ECM, and advisory in India—key for accessing deal flow in Asia’s fastest-growing major market.
- Cross-border and ESG deal flow: Strong global capabilities (e.g. via Greenhill) could be deployed in India, which is seeing renewed IPO activity and growing demand for cross-border M&A and alternative asset strategies. Aligns with global appetite for sustainable financing and advisory. [9][15]
- Deal structure and timing risk: Valuation disagreements, exit options for existing stakeholders, and regulatory/governance complexity may further delay or derail the Avendus deal. Execution on hiring, integrating, and developing non-Japanese, cross-regional talent will be a critical enabler. [2][3][1]
- Competitive pressure: Other Japanese megabanks like SMFG and MUFG are also actively targeting India and overseas asset management deals, intensifying competition. [9] Furthermore, local Indian banks and boutique advisory firms represent both rivals and acquisition targets.
Open questions include:
- Will Mizuho resolve valuation concerns and exit structures with KKR to secure Avendus? If yes, when, and at what terms?
- How will Mizuho manage regulatory, cultural and talent integration risks, especially given its emphasis on increasing non-Japanese staff and decentralising decision making? [1]
- What is the sustainability of revenue diversification across India’s non-IB verticals (wealth, credit solutions, institutional equities) as seen in Avendus’ financials? Can they offset volatility in investment banking? [10]
- Will Mizuho’s strategy allow it to surpass entrenched global peers in league tables in both Asia and the U.S., given current ranking and operational reach? [5][12]
- Mizuho is evaluating ways to expand its investment banking business in India, focusing on wholesale clients—corporate and institutional—rather than commercial banking. [1]
- The bank is reportedly in talks to acquire a controlling interest in Avendus Capital, although negotiations have paused as of late 2025. [1][3]
- Avendus’ valuation estimates range between US$700 million and US$800 million including debt; proposed stake could amount to 63–70%. [1][4][3][6]
- Deal talks have stalled primarily due to disagreements over valuation and the exit option for current owners (KKR). [2][3][6]
- Mizuho has previously acquired Greenhill & Co in 2023 to boost its cross-border M&A and advisory capabilities, especially in the U.S. [1][5][12]
- Approximately 40% of Mizuho’s gross profit is currently derived from its global corporate and investment banking division. [1]
- Mizuho aims to become the leading investment bank in Asia within five years, deepening ties between its banking and securities units and scaling across emerging markets. [5][8]
- Non-IB verticals of Avendus (wealth management, institutional equities, credit solutions) are growing, contributing improving revenue and profit distribution; investment banking alone provided ~53% of operating PBT in nine months ending fiscal 2025, down from ~84% two years earlier. [10]
- [1] www.globaldata.com (Private Banker International) — November 20, 2025
- [2] www.bloomberg.com (Bloomberg) — September 4, 2025
- [3] www.japantimes.co.jp (The Japan Times) — September 4, 2025
- [4] www.business-standard.com (Business-Standard) — June 11, 2025
- [5] www.bloomberg.com (Bloomberg) — September 1, 2025
- [6] economictimes.indiatimes.com (Economic Times) — September 4, 2025
- [8] www.bloomberg.com (Bloomberg) — November 19, 2025
- [9] www.spglobal.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) — June 8, 2025
- [10] www.moneycontrol.com (Moneycontrol) — April 22, 2025
- [12] www.ft.com (Financial Times) — September 10, 2025